The One in 5 Doctrine

Chrystal Ball Recruiting

New age HR bureaucrats woke to thrive in a digital world driven by data and powered by algorithms to predict candidate success, remove bias and advance diversity in a big data sort of of way.

It’s digital crystal ball recruiting at a new zenith. Beware the high tech vendors pitch. The One in 5 Doctrine to talent building is all you need to know.

The One in 5 Doctrine

No, it’s not from big data. The One in 5 Doctrine is a natural law and tried and true statistical trend. It has stood the test of time no matter the HR gurus, recruitment vendors and marketing spinsters who insist it ain’t so.

Counter the sales pitch with legions of front line supervisors who have collectively hired thousands of people over decades. They— not algorithms— gladly confirm simple truth about the age-old numbers game:

One in five is a good catch.

Your chance of landing a “good” candidate who indeed proves to be a high-performance employee is a lucky one-in-five.

Yep, you always knew it. Approximately 20% exactly of your hires are pretty darn good. Not always super-great mind you (that’s far rarer); but definitely worth the expense and trouble to bring on board.

High-performance types are easy to count. Some jerks, some gems; all are doers who yearn to standout.

These high-performance types are easy to count— they come in early, leave late; pitch in without being asked; respond timely; and routinely knock out double or even triple the value work of most peers.

Among this ego-rich lot are your smarty-pants know-it alls, rainmakers, bottom-liners, customer-pleasers, butt kissers and favorite do-whatever-it-takes workaholic crazies who strive to achieve merely for the sake of achieving.

Some jerks, some gems; all are doers who yearn to stand out. HR-babbled positive feedback for just showing up specifically annoy this crowd; while ever-more money, status and autonomy for results are demanded.

And thus you so favor them. Even the jerks. Why? Because your top-notcher is consistently better at doing the job than 80% of employee counterparts. And not a little better— way better.

Yes, yay! You made a good decision. What a relief. One in five is a hit.

Three in five are “okay”.

High performance is not the norm. It’s the exception. Normal people work to pay their rent, party and feed their kids; not for the sake of your company mission statement.

Three in five suit-up and show up without fanfare, use all allotted paid time off, and typically meet, but rarely exceed, basic job requirements .

Solid citizens, true to themselves, and good mannered mostly, they deceive credible for a paid day off; and refuse kindly to pitch in past 5pm for no money.

With a little training and regular feedback (or not), they eventually do what you pay them to do and maybe a bit extra on a good day. They don’t quite live up to your ideal high hopes; but then again, they are not a problem either.

So you learn to appreciate them as you surely should. You thank them more for effort than results and get okay with it.

Acceptance is the key.

You applaud their commendable attitude for trudging tasks complete and you encourage them to keep up the good-enough work—three in five.

One in five is a miss.

You would not rehire 20% of the workforce from what you now know.

This is math that bothers. At first glance, you deny it. No way are 20% of my employee-family-team bad apples. I would never tolerate it!

First, you do tolerate it every day; you are just cool to call it something better than what it really is. This is about relative ranking of employees and candidates compared to one another, not just identifying “bad apples.”

We are not grading “unsatisfactory” job performance. That bar has long been buried in the mud

We are not grading “unsatisfactory” job performance here. We can’t. For most employers, that bar has long been buried in the mud. The definition of poor performance is regulated to stealing, falsifying, no-showing, harassing, insubordination, assault, being wasted, property damage, etc— is down low silly anymore.

You would not rehire 20% from what you now know. No, you would not.

So ask a different question:

Would you rehire them? If you could go back in time, would you make the same decision to bring him or her on board or would you have preferred to select someone else? Someone not with the company yet who would, on average, be a better match.

Or do look internally. That works well in fact:

Rank your incumbents in comparable jobs. Of a five person team, are four others better than the fifth? Of course. So then, chances are you would not rehire the 5th.

Why? Because four out of five times, some one else can do a better job! It’s pretty basic.

Be honest– one in five is a miss.

You would not rehire 20% from what you now know. No, you would not.

Experience it yourself

I don’t have a research journal to press my case. The reader can decide if what I suggest is crude posturing or practical inspiration. Experience verifies the One in 5 Doctrine. Your experience.

Play statistics all you want. That’s what algorithms do. You can live in denial and claim not one person on your team is less than “average.” If that’s your boast, then it is too easy to work at your company.

Every headhunter on the planet meanwhile will say it ain’t so. Their tried and true methods evidence far higher successful placements.

The definition of “success” is where the argument falls. If it worked out (4 in 5 at least), then the placement folks claim success, take their outrageous fee and move on.

Few recruiters check back a year later to assimilate your business reality. And the reality is this—one in five is a hit, three out of five are okay, and one in five is a miss.

Talent building is not recruiting

Talent building is about the talent pipeline; not the recruiting technique. The keys to the castle are continuous job vacancies to open gate for a lucky 20% chance to bring in a great performer.

It’s NOT about recruiting, it’s about talent building. It’s about increasing the chances of getting great people on board by keeping the talent pipeline open in good times and in bad.

It’s about hiring people quickly, finding out if they are the right fit ASAP, and being very decisive about mediocrity when you miss.